Predict Here Research

Contract Watch

A dated log of events that change what an event contract pays: rule changes, clarifications, disputes and settlements that split across venues. Facts, sources and times; no prices.

Edited by Chris Park, Chief Product Officer. Each entry cites the venue documents, public market records or reporting it relies on, with dates. Corrections are made openly and dated. Nothing here is investment advice.

Now watching

Midterms 2026: how each venue settles Senate and House control

Election day is 3 November. Kalshi pays on the party leading each chamber on 1 February 2027 and can settle early once at least four of eight named media desks call the result. Polymarket International and Polymarket US pay on seats won and can wait for runoffs and for independents to say whom they caucus with; the first resolves through UMA's oracle, the second through its exchange's officers. We will record when each venue settles, and on what evidence.

No venue has settled these contracts yet.

Read the side-by-side contract terms

2 of 10 entries match.

28 October 2026Settlement timingKalshi · Polymarket International

Ninth FOMC meeting in a row: the same answer, minutes apart on one venue and hours on the other

What happened. The Fed held rates on 28 October. Kalshi settled its rate-decision contracts 6.5 minutes after the 2:00 p.m. ET statement. Polymarket International's markets settled about 2.0 hours after it. Both venues paid the same outcome.

Why it matters. Kalshi's contract terms stop trading at 1:55 p.m. ET and expire at 2:05 p.m. ET, and the exchange settles directly. Polymarket resolves through a proposal and a challenge window. Across the nine meetings since October 2025, the median times to settlement are 8.1 minutes and 3.3 hours. One disputed Polymarket market took 33.6 hours.

Sources

Related research: Same Question, Different Contract

5 March 2026Settlement timingPolymarket International · Kalshi

Warsh nomination: both venues paid, about 19 hours apart

What happened. Polymarket's “Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?” resolved YES at 19:25 UTC on 4 March, after two disputes. Kalshi's Fed chair nominee contract settled YES at 14:52 UTC on 5 March.

Why it matters. Polymarket defined a formal nomination as the submission of a nomination message to the Senate. Kalshi paid on the first person formally nominated by the President, and was reported to wait for the Senate's formal receipt.

Sources

Related research: Same Question, Different Contract

How entries are made

An entry records an event that changed, or could have changed, what a contract pays: a settlement that split across venues, a clarification or dispute, a rule or rulebook change, a regulatory proposal, or a difference in terms that a future event could expose. We read the venue's own rules and records first, and use reporting only where it adds a fact we can attribute. Settlement values are reported; trading prices are not.

For the evidence behind many of these entries, read Same Question, Different Contract. For how we compare contract terms, see the contract comparison checklist and our methodology.

Predict Here Research

Contract Watch

A dated log of events that change what an event contract pays: rule changes, clarifications, disputes and settlements that split across venues. Facts, sources and times; no prices.

Now watching

Midterms 2026: how each venue settles Senate and House control

No venue has settled these contracts yet.

Read the side-by-side contract terms

2 of 10 entries match.

28 October 2026Settlement timingKalshi · Polymarket International

Ninth FOMC meeting in a row: the same answer, minutes apart on one venue and hours on the other

Sources

Related research: Same Question, Different Contract

5 March 2026Settlement timingPolymarket International · Kalshi

Warsh nomination: both venues paid, about 19 hours apart

Sources

Related research: Same Question, Different Contract

How entries are made

For the evidence behind many of these entries, read Same Question, Different Contract. For how we compare contract terms, see the contract comparison checklist and our methodology.