METHODOLOGY
How we compute what we publish
Every number on Predict Here Monitor is meant to be checked, not taken on faith. This page explains how.
Canonical Monitor routes require a signed-in organization session and applicable rights. Developer Sandbox keys access synthetic sandbox routes only. Production API-key transport is not available for these canonical routes.
On this page
Parameters
The constants the running system uses, read from the same modules the collector and the API read — not re-typed for this page.
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Collection cadence | 1-minute ticks | Collector schedule |
| Freshness policy | 10 minutes → STALE | Freshness policy |
| Execution ladder | $10,000 · $50,000 · $100,000 · $250,000 · $500,000 · $1,000,000 | Execution & liquidity methodology |
| Capacity bands | ±1 pp · ±2 pp · ±5 pp | Execution & liquidity methodology |
| Semantic states | VERIFIED · PARTIAL · NOT_EQUIVALENT · UNREVIEWED | Reference plane |
| Relationship types with implemented analytical use | EXACT_COMPLEMENT · MUTUALLY_EXCLUSIVE · EXHAUSTIVE_SET · CROSS_VENUE_EQUIVALENT | Reference plane |
| Taxonomy version | taxo_v1 | Published version identifiers |
| Execution algorithm version | intel-execution-r1@1 | Published version identifiers |
Market-implied probability
For a fresh, valid, two-sided market we use the midpoint between the best bid — the highest price a buyer will pay — and the best ask — the lowest price a seller will accept — as the market-implied probability. It is a market price, never a forecast, and we never call it a "true probability".
mid = (best bid + best ask) / 2
PH Composite is an implemented, organization-scoped depth- and quality-weighted median. A result requires at least two distinct currently entitled sources, a current human-reviewed proposition/outcome mapping, current source rights, complete retained terms and fresh valid two-sided quotes. Its input-age ceiling is 10 minutes; the separate 10 minute quote stale threshold describes Monitor freshness and does not replace consensus eligibility. US fixed-$1 binary prices also require a current human payout admission. Production US and Kalshi collection are disabled; no live multi-venue coverage is implied.
Provenance
Canonical derived figures on Predict Here Monitor carry their source, an as-of timestamp, and applicable methodology identifiers, so the figure can be traced to its inputs and timing. The shared pipeline supports eligible licensed US records; the dedicated Polymarket US workspace shows venue-provided descriptions and book snapshots with separate source and observation times. US and Kalshi production collection is currently disabled. Our security and governance posture is described on our trust & security page.
Event mapping
A canonical event is a real-world question; venue contracts are the tradable instruments that reference it. Every mapping between a canonical event and a venue contract carries the review status described below — and only VERIFIED mappings ever feed an aggregated figure or a derived probability distribution.
Semantic verification
Before venue contracts are compared or aggregated, the proposition and outcome relationship is reviewed and versioned. Only current VERIFIED relationships can contribute to eligible PH Composite results. Cross-venue support is implemented conditionally; US and Kalshi production collection is currently disabled.
| State | What it means | Feeds PH Composite? |
|---|---|---|
| VERIFIED | Reviewed and confirmed equivalent — safe to compare or aggregate. | Yes |
| PARTIAL | The relationship is marked REVIEW_REQUIRED: more review is needed and possible semantic differences remain unresolved. This is not a partial approval. | No |
| NOT_EQUIVALENT | Reviewed and rejected as equivalent. Excluded from comparison. | No |
| UNREVIEWED | No review has happened yet. Treated as unverified, never assumed equivalent by default. | No |
Two related vocabularies, not one
Derived distributions
A probability distribution is only derived for a verified family of mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes. We always show the raw summed probability alongside any normalized distribution, and suppress the normalized view — with a stated reason — when the raw sum drifts too far from 100% for the underlying quotes to be trusted.
Live, delayed, and stale
Canonical Monitor collection polls enabled and licensed sources on a scheduled interval rather than streaming continuously; resulting figures carry an as-of timestamp and are labeled delayed. The dedicated Polymarket US workspace also supports on-demand reads with separate source and server observation times.
| State | Rule |
|---|---|
| DELAYED | The baseline for every polling-collector quote. The figure is real and timestamped, but it is not live. |
| STALE | No acceptable update within the 10-minute freshness policy. Excluded from every aggregate and ranking rather than shown as current. |
Executable liquidity & capacity honesty
Predict Here Monitor computes price-at-size directly from visible order-book depth at six fixed notional sizes ($10,000 · $50,000 · $100,000 · $250,000 · $500,000 · $1,000,000). The event workstation may show a subset of these sizes; Monitor's API always serves the full ladder. The Portfolio & risk workspace has its own, older analytics API on a separate four-size ladder; it is documented to Institutional Evaluation and Institutional organizations, not on this page. When the book does not show enough depth to fill a size, Monitor states "insufficient visible depth" instead of extrapolating a number the market never showed. A top-of-book quote is never presented as what a real position could execute.
Signals, not advice
Predict Here Monitor reports market-derived signals and the methodology behind them. It does not generate investment recommendations, and nothing on this product should be read as advice to buy, sell, or hold any contract.
Versioning & corrections
When a computation method changes it gets a new version identifier and a documented backfill of affected records — we never silently rewrite historical figures. A mapping found to be wrong is marked withdrawn, any derived data is recomputed, and the correction is disclosed rather than hidden.
Current versions
- taxo_v1
- intel-execution-r1@1
WORKING SAMPLE · SYNTHETIC DATA
Follow the research from observation to evidence.
Open Monitor, screen the universe, inspect contract terms, compare eligible outcomes and retain a research brief. Watchlists, saved views and adjustable workspaces keep the same event in context.
No account required for the sample. Its fictional records, local alerts and research stay separate from organization data. Portfolio scenarios are a bounded private beta; organization access still requires sign-in, plan and source permissions.
See the methodology applied
Explore supports curated events, verification states, provenance and a price-at-size rung when your organization has current source rights. Signup alone does not grant real market data. An Institutional Evaluation adds a scoped event universe, the full ladder and alerts. Canonical Monitor routes use a signed-in organization session and applicable rights; Developer Sandbox keys access synthetic routes only, and production API-key transport is not available for those canonical routes.