How Predict Here works
What is Predict Here?
A live prediction market on streamed events. Stake USDC on YES, NO, or TIE outcomes — score this minute, win this set, finish in the top 3. If your outcome wins, you take a slice of the pool — and the earlier you predict, the bigger your slice.
Do I need to sign up?
No. Connect any Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Binance Web3, Phantom, Coinbase, Rabby, Trust, Rainbow, OKX…) and sign one free message. That's the entire onboarding.
How does payout work?
Each market is a pool. Predictions on YES go into the YES pool; same for NO and TIE. When the streamer resolves, winners split the entire pool — but with an early-bird bonus. Each prediction earns a multiplier (a 'weight') at placement based on how thin the pool was at that moment: weight = 1 + B · exp(−pool/L). Your slice of the winning pool is proportional to (your stake × your weight). The first predictor on a fresh market starts at 2× weight; the multiplier decays toward 1× as the pool fills.
- Default tunables: B = 1.0, L = $100. Fresh market = 2.00× weight; pool at $100 = 1.37×; pool at $300 = 1.05×; pool at $500+ = effectively 1.0×.
- Worked example: $10 YES early + $10 NO + $10 YES late, YES wins. After the 1% fee, the pool is $29.70. Early YES (weight 2.00×) gets ~$15.55 (+55%); late YES (weight 1.82×) gets ~$14.15 (+42%) — same side, same stake, the early predictor walks away with $1.40 more.
- If YES loses, both YES predictions pay $0 — same as classic parimutuel. The early-bird bonus only matters when your side wins.
How are markets resolved?
The streamer who created the market proposes the outcome live. There's a 3-hour dispute window before withdrawal of any winnings is allowed. Anyone with a stake in the market can flag the proposed outcome; flagged markets escalate to admin review.
What's the fee?
1% on every prediction, deducted at placement. The remaining 99% goes into the pool and is paid out to winners. Withdrawal fee: just network gas costs.
How do deposits work?
Send native USDC on Polygon to your unique account address (visible in the Wallet tab once you're signed in). After 30 confirmations (~60 seconds) the USDC is credited to your trade balance. Trade balance ≠ wallet balance: the deposited USDC sits in your Predict Here account, not in your on-chain wallet.
How do withdrawals work?
Withdrawals are locked to the wallet you signed in with. Each withdrawal requires a fresh wallet signature — a stolen browser session alone cannot move your funds. There is no way to send to an external address. Daily and monthly caps apply.
How do I get USDC to deposit?
Bring your own. USDC on Polygon only. We don't sell, swap, or on-ramp crypto for you — pick any exchange or DEX you already use, send USDC to your Polygon wallet, then deposit from there.
Why was my deposit not credited?
The most common reason is a sanctions screen on the sender. We screen every from address against the public Chainalysis Sanctions Oracle on Polygon; matches are quarantined and not credited. The other common reason is sending the wrong asset (only native USDC on Polygon works — not USDC.e bridged, not MATIC, not ETH).
Where can't I use it?
Service is unavailable in the United States and OFAC-sanctioned jurisdictions (Iran, North Korea, Syria, Cuba, Russia). Connecting a wallet from a blocked region does not create an account.
Is my money safe?
We hold user funds custodially. The hot wallet holds only what's needed for same-day withdrawals; the rest is in cold storage with multisig signing. Every balance change is recorded in a double-entry ledger and reconciled hourly. That said: you may lose all funds you deposit through trading losses, custody compromise, or smart-contract risk on USDC itself.
What if a market never resolves?
Markets that pass 48 hours without resolution are auto-refunded — every participant gets their stake back.
Taxes?
Trade history is exportable via your wallet history page. You're responsible for reporting in your jurisdiction. Consult a local tax advisor.