RESEARCH & METHODOLOGY
Published prediction-market research
Methods and educational analysis on contract meaning, market observations, evidence and the limits of comparison.
Published methodology paper
A detailed framework for deciding when two event contracts refer to the same underlying question and what evidence a comparison should preserve.
Related research guides
Start with a product guide for the workflow, then read the published framework for contract comparison.
- Contract analysis
Contract analysis: compare outcome definitions, cutoffs, resolution sources and human review state.
- Liquidity analysis
Liquidity analysis: distinguish a headline number from a size-specific calculation over visible depth.
- Research evidence
Research evidence: retain source, timing, method and limitations with a conclusion.
Download the public contract-comparison checklist and evidence template
Our standard
Every piece we publish states its methodology, its sample window, and the rights under which its source data is used. A finding is never presented past what the underlying data actually supports — the same capacity-honesty rule that governs the event workstation applies to research. Corrections are versioned and disclosed, never silently applied to something already published.
Research scope and limits
This publication sets out a framework and illustrative cases, not a measured cross-venue sample or certification by an external authority. The read-only shared pipeline supports licensed Polymarket US and Kalshi records and reviewed cross-venue analysis, but both source collectors are disabled in the current production release. Current activation is shown on the Market Infrastructure page.
Discuss an institutional research workflow
Tell us which event set, evidence and access boundaries an institutional evaluation would need to cover.