Contract Watch

What happened. The Polymarket US rulebook, in the version dated 30 September 2026, makes three provisions. Rule 10.3 lets the exchange modify contract specifications, including the settlement date and payout condition, with notice. Rule 10.4 places outcome review with named officers, whose determinations are final. Rule 10.5 settles contracts on natural persons at last traded prices when death or incapacity means the qualifying outcome can no longer occur or be determined.

Why it matters. Polymarket International resolves through UMA's optimistic oracle and, when twice disputed, a token-holder vote. The same brand runs two adjudication regimes, so a data pipeline that treats “Polymarket” as one source is mapping two kinds of contract.

What happened. Two days after settling its Khamenei contracts, Kalshi submitted an amendment to Rule 6.3 to the CFTC. When the primary subject of a contract dies before expiration, the amendment authorizes settlement at the last traded price before the death. It also allows trading halts when a death is believed to have occurred or to be imminent, and gives the Outcome Review Committee authority to set a fair settlement value.

Why it matters. Kalshi described the amendment as codifying existing practice. It makes a non-binary settlement state explicit for all contracts on natural persons, not only those that carry a contract-level carve-out.