Recorded market comparison · Natural gas
One commodity, two different tests
Week of October 26, 2026 · Kalshi and Polymarket International · captured primary-source termsCompare the actual contract conditions
Recorded: Kalshi settled NO at 2.883 USD/MMBtu (not above 2.999 at 5:00 PM EDT). Polymarket International settled YES (a 1-minute Low reached $2.90 or below during the week).
A close at one stated minute and a Low at any minute of the week are different tests on different price feeds, and neither is the physical cash price. Review the outcome of each contract on its own terms.
Evidence and identifiers
- Will the natural gas close price be above 2.999 USD/MMBtu on October 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?KXNATGASW-26OCT3017-T2.999 · YES · captured 2026-10-31T07:59:54.728ZSource SHA-256 176264703445373805e257872a471a79ddb131c17331cb6e7d4acd1d07bab49fPrimary source
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of October 26 2026?6097457 · YES · captured 2026-10-31T07:59:54.728ZSource SHA-256 cbdaf6d1f9f18a6710cb57d639c35c12892331d42cbc7cde65e073d92e9b4adaPrimary source

