Predict Here Research

Contract Watch

A dated log of events that change what an event contract pays: rule changes, clarifications, disputes and settlements that split across venues. Facts, sources and times; no prices.

Edited by Chris Park, Chief Product Officer. Each entry cites the venue documents, public market records or reporting it relies on, with dates. Corrections are made openly and dated. Nothing here is investment advice.

Now watching

Midterms 2026: how each venue settles Senate and House control

Election day is 3 November. Kalshi pays on the party leading each chamber on 1 February 2027 and can settle early once at least four of eight named media desks call the result. Polymarket International and Polymarket US pay on seats won and can wait for runoffs and for independents to say whom they caucus with; the first resolves through UMA's oracle, the second through its exchange's officers. We will record when each venue settles, and on what evidence.

No venue has settled these contracts yet.

Read the side-by-side contract terms

1 of 10 entries match.

10 June 2026RegulatoryCFTC

CFTC proposal names “settlement integrity deficits” among reasons a contract may be contrary to the public interest

What happened. The CFTC proposed amendments to Rule 40.11, which governs event contracts that involve enumerated activities. Among the factors that could make a contract contrary to the public interest, the proposal lists settlement integrity deficits, such as a lack of clear and objective resolution criteria.

Why it matters. Regulated venues are likely to write more explicit carve-outs and evidentiary standards. Offshore venues are not bound by the proposal, so drafting differences between contracts on the same question may widen before they narrow.

Sources

Congressional Research Service, Legal Sidebar LSB11441

Related research: Same Question, Different Contract

How entries are made

An entry records an event that changed, or could have changed, what a contract pays: a settlement that split across venues, a clarification or dispute, a rule or rulebook change, a regulatory proposal, or a difference in terms that a future event could expose. We read the venue's own rules and records first, and use reporting only where it adds a fact we can attribute. Settlement values are reported; trading prices are not.

For the evidence behind many of these entries, read Same Question, Different Contract. For how we compare contract terms, see the contract comparison checklist and our methodology.