Predict Here Research

Contract Watch

A dated log of events that change what an event contract pays: rule changes, clarifications, disputes and settlements that split across venues. Facts, sources and times; no prices.

Edited by Chris Park, Chief Product Officer. Each entry cites the venue documents, public market records or reporting it relies on, with dates. Corrections are made openly and dated. Nothing here is investment advice.

Now watching

Midterms 2026: how each venue settles Senate and House control

Election day is 3 November. Kalshi pays on the party leading each chamber on 1 February 2027 and can settle early once at least four of eight named media desks call the result. Polymarket International and Polymarket US pay on seats won and can wait for runoffs and for independents to say whom they caucus with; the first resolves through UMA's oracle, the second through its exchange's officers. We will record when each venue settles, and on what evidence.

No venue has settled these contracts yet.

Read the side-by-side contract terms

1 of 10 entries match.

28 February 2026Divergent settlementKalshi · Polymarket International · Gemini Predictions · PredictIt

One event, four settlements: Khamenei's death

What happened. Polymarket International's “out by February 28” contract paid YES at $1.00 after two disputes. Kalshi applied its death carve-out and settled the YES side of its “before March 1” contract at $0.02, and its later-dated contracts at $0.29, $0.45 and $0.51. Kalshi then reimbursed fees and net losses. Gemini's “remain through” contracts resolved NO, and PredictIt's “vacate” wording covered death.

Why it matters. Each venue paid what its contract said. The difference came from drafting: whether death counts as leaving office, and how the venue settles when it does.

Sources

Related research: Same Question, Different Contract

How entries are made

An entry records an event that changed, or could have changed, what a contract pays: a settlement that split across venues, a clarification or dispute, a rule or rulebook change, a regulatory proposal, or a difference in terms that a future event could expose. We read the venue's own rules and records first, and use reporting only where it adds a fact we can attribute. Settlement values are reported; trading prices are not.

For the evidence behind many of these entries, read Same Question, Different Contract. For how we compare contract terms, see the contract comparison checklist and our methodology.