Predict Here Research

Contract Watch

A dated log of events that change what an event contract pays: rule changes, clarifications, disputes and settlements that split across venues. Facts, sources and times; no prices.

Edited by Chris Park, Chief Product Officer. Each entry cites the venue documents, public market records or reporting it relies on, with dates. Corrections are made openly and dated. Nothing here is investment advice.

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Midterms 2026: how each venue settles Senate and House control

Election day is 3 November. Kalshi pays on the party leading each chamber on 1 February 2027 and can settle early once at least four of eight named media desks call the result. Polymarket International and Polymarket US pay on seats won and can wait for runoffs and for independents to say whom they caucus with; the first resolves through UMA's oracle, the second through its exchange's officers. We will record when each venue settles, and on what evidence.

No venue has settled these contracts yet.

Read the side-by-side contract terms

1 of 10 entries match.

1 June 2026Clarification and disputePolymarket International · Kalshi

Strategy's May bitcoin sale: one sale, NO for May and YES for June

What happened. Strategy disclosed on 1 June that it had sold 32 BTC between 26 and 31 May. Polymarket then posted additional context: confirmation that arrived after a market's timeframe did not qualify. Its “by May 31” contract, which traded $376 million, was disputed twice and resolved NO. Its June 30 and December 31 contracts resolved YES.

Why it matters. The original text read as event-based; the clarification read it as confirmation-based. Kalshi files comparable contracts under a template named EVENTCONFIRMED, which makes confirmation by named news organizations the trigger from the start.

Sources

Related research: Same Question, Different Contract

How entries are made

An entry records an event that changed, or could have changed, what a contract pays: a settlement that split across venues, a clarification or dispute, a rule or rulebook change, a regulatory proposal, or a difference in terms that a future event could expose. We read the venue's own rules and records first, and use reporting only where it adds a fact we can attribute. Settlement values are reported; trading prices are not.

For the evidence behind many of these entries, read Same Question, Different Contract. For how we compare contract terms, see the contract comparison checklist and our methodology.