What this page answers: Where the rulebooks differ, and what each contract pays in those cases. The differences are the source of between venues.
What each venue’s own rule text pays in cases the headline price does not show, such as a rate move that sits between two outcomes or a cancelled meeting, and how long each venue has taken to settle.
| State | Kalshi | Polymarket Intl | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upper bound up 12.5 bp | Five outcomes are listed and the rule text states no rounding rule for a move between them. The venue’s wordsIf the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. | A change to a level not among the options is rounded up to the nearest 25 bp, so a 12.5 bp increase pays the 25 bps increase outcome. The venue’s wordsIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) | A change smaller than the smallest option in its direction is rounded to that option, so a 12.5 bp increase pays the 25 bps increase outcome. The venue’s wordschanges smaller than the smallest option of the same direction (increase/decrease) will be rounded to that smallest option |
| Meeting cancelled | Fed maintains rate pays 1.00 and every other outcome pays nothing. The venue’s wordsIf the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No. | The No change outcome pays if no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting. The venue’s wordsIf no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket. | The rule text states nothing about a cancelled meeting. |
| Who decides and when it settles | Expiration is the first 2:05 PM ET after the decision is released. Settlement is due no later than the next day, unless the exchange has the outcome under review. The venue’s wordsThe Settlement Date of the Contract shall be no later than the day after the Expiration Date, unless the Market Outcome is under review pursuant to Rule 7.1. | The market may resolve as soon as the FOMC statement is issued; its own rules name no time limit, and the oracle decides the result. The venue’s wordsThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. | The description states no settlement time (the venue lists the market's end as 24 Dec 2026). Exchange officers determine outcomes and their determinations are final (Polymarket US Rulebook, Rule 10.4, version dated 30 Sep 2026). The venue’s wordsOutcome sourced from the Federal Reserve. |
No position is selected, so no cell says what it pays; choose one under Read for position. Readings are ours, in words; the venue’s own text is behind each one. A venue that changes its text after this review is read again before the reading is shown.
Across 9 meetings, from the Fed’s statement to settlement: Kalshi median 8.1 minutes (6.5 to 13.7); Polymarket median of each meeting’s markets 2.0 to 3.9 hours, longest 33.6 hours (disputed, Oct 2025). Observed