What this page answers: How the 2-year Treasury yield moved on each Fed decision day, next to what the venues priced beforehand.
An study uses repeated meetings, measured the same way each time. It separates what the venues expected from what the market did.
| Result | N | Range, | Median, bp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cut 25 | 2 | −7 to +12 | +2.5 |
| No change | 6 | −4 to +15 | +5.5 |
| Hike 25 | 1 | +7 to +7 | +7 |
| Meeting | Result | Price before | 3M | 2Y | 10Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2025 | Cut 25 | Not captured | +4 | +12 | +9 |
| 10 Dec 2025 | Cut 25 | Not captured | −4 | −7 | −5 |
| 28 Jan 2026 | No change | Not captured | +1 | +3 | +2 |
| 18 Mar 2026 | No change | Not captured | +1 | +8 | +6 |
| 29 Apr 2026 | No change | Not captured | 0 | +8 | +6 |
| 17 Jun 2026 | No change | Not captured | +4 | +15 | +6 |
| 29 Jul 2026 | No change | Not captured | −7 | −4 | +6 |
| 16 Sept 2026 | Hike 25 | Not captured | +3 | +7 | +1 |
| 28 Oct 2026 | No change | Kalshi 85¢recorded 16 OctPolymarket Intl 86.5¢recorded 16 Oct | −4 | −3 | +6 |
A dash in “Price before” means no venue price was recorded before that meeting (not captured). No value is estimated or carried forward to fill it. Yields: US Treasury daily par yield curve rates.
Method: daily closes, previous business day to decision day. A daily close includes every other release that day; intraday windows need a licensed feed.