What this page answers: What a leaves uncovered.
If the desk sells a client an event , what can it buy on the venues, at what measured cost, and what is left over in each state. The venues’ own books and rule texts are the inputs.
Reading live prices.
| State | Kalshi | Polymarket Intl | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upper bound up 12.5 bp | Five outcomes are listed and the rule text states no rounding rule for a move between them. The venue’s wordsIf the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. | A change to a level not among the options is rounded up to the nearest 25 bp, so a 12.5 bp increase pays the 25 bps increase outcome. The venue’s wordsIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) | A change smaller than the smallest option in its direction is rounded to that option, so a 12.5 bp increase pays the 25 bps increase outcome. The venue’s wordschanges smaller than the smallest option of the same direction (increase/decrease) will be rounded to that smallest option |
| Meeting cancelled | Fed maintains rate pays 1.00 and every other outcome pays nothing. The venue’s wordsIf the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No. | The No change outcome pays if no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting. The venue’s wordsIf no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket. | The rule text states nothing about a cancelled meeting. |
| Who decides and when it settles | Expiration is the first 2:05 PM ET after the decision is released. Settlement is due no later than the next day, unless the exchange has the outcome under review. The venue’s wordsThe Settlement Date of the Contract shall be no later than the day after the Expiration Date, unless the Market Outcome is under review pursuant to Rule 7.1. | The market may resolve as soon as the FOMC statement is issued; its own rules name no time limit, and the oracle decides the result. The venue’s wordsThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. | The description states no settlement time (the venue lists the market's end as 24 Dec 2026). Exchange officers determine outcomes and their determinations are final (Polymarket US Rulebook, Rule 10.4, version dated 30 Sep 2026). The venue’s wordsOutcome sourced from the Federal Reserve. |
Historical response evidence is shown under Event response; a current quote is still needed.
Futures, options and fund prices need a data licence that is not recorded yet, so this panel shows no numbers.
Prices are each venue’s public order book as fetched by Predict Here. No order is submitted. Venue books are measured at fixed sizes; the cost of any other size is bracketed, never estimated.