Watch · changes that affect saved cases

What changed since your cases were prepared

A change to a settlement source, a rule or an outcome suspends the affected figures until someone reviews them.

3 of 3 changes

Effective Fri 4 Sep 2026Kalshi series metadata, KXNATGASW (important information)
Settlement source changed
Kalshi weekly natural gas now settles on the Pyth Natural Gas 24/7 index
Markets settling from Friday 4 September 2026 use the Pyth Natural Gas 24/7 index (Index.NATGAS/USD), replacing the front-month natural gas futures settlement. Markets settling earlier kept the front-month futures method.
No saved case is affected
For information
Listed Wed 7 Oct 2026Kalshi series metadata, KXPJMWESTW
New contracts
PJM weekly and monthly hub power prices
Kalshi lists weekly and monthly average real-time prices for PJM Western, AEP-Dayton and Dominion hubs, self-certified to the CFTC on 7 October 2026. They settle on PJM Data Miner 2's verified hourly real-time prices. A MISO Indiana hub series is also listed.
No saved case is affected
For information
Checked Sat 7 Nov 2026Kalshi contract terms: commodities
Rule unchanged
Accountability level still $25,000 per strike, per member
Above it the exchange may ask questions, and larger size runs through block trades. Checked in the commodities, NGAS and power contract terms.
No issue found

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Dated changes to venue contract terms and the disputes and divergences that followed, each with its sources.

TypeVenue

11 of 11 entries

4 Nov 2026Settlement timingKalshi · Polymarket International · Polymarket US
Midterms: three venues, the same answer, hours apart
The Democratic contract won both chambers on all three venues. Kalshi settled its Senate contracts at 05:46 UTC on 4 November and its House contracts at 06:02 UTC. On Polymarket International, the Republican (losing) Senate contract closed at 07:47 UTC and the Democratic (winning) one at 10:53 UTC; in the House the Republican contract closed at 09:57 UTC and the Democratic one at 13:06 UTC. Polymarket US shows all four contracts as resolved and publishes no settlement time. Recorded from the three venues' public market data on 6 November 2026.
Sources
Open on Contract Watch
31 Oct 2026Terms differenceKalshi · Polymarket International · Polymarket US
Senate control: one question, three contracts
Three venues list a contract on which party wins the Senate on 3 November. Kalshi pays on the party of the President pro tempore of the Senate, as recorded on congress.gov at 10:00 AM ET on 1 February 2027, and can settle earlier once at least four of eight named media desks call the result. Polymarket International and Polymarket US each pay on the party that wins a majority of the Senate's voting seats, and each text lets the market stay open for runoffs and, for undeclared independents, until 11:59 PM ET on 4 January 2027. Their counting rules read almost the same. We read the Polymarket US text on 31 October.
Sources
Open on Contract Watch
28 Oct 2026Settlement timingKalshi · Polymarket International
Ninth FOMC meeting in a row: the same answer, minutes apart on one venue and hours on the other
The Fed held rates on 28 October. Kalshi settled its rate-decision contracts 6.5 minutes after the 2:00 p.m. ET statement. Polymarket International's markets settled about 2.0 hours after it. Both venues paid the same outcome.
Sources
Open on Contract Watch
14 Oct 2026Terms differenceKalshi · Polymarket International
Two Bitcoin “above” contracts, two fixings, one outcome
Kalshi's contract paid YES if the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 p.m. EDT was above $85,499.99. Polymarket International's paid YES if the Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle closing at noon ET was above $86,000. The BRTI fixing was $81,711.75, and both contracts settled NO.
Sources
Open on Contract Watch
30 Sep 2026Rule changePolymarket US · Polymarket International
Polymarket US's rulebook puts outcomes with exchange officers and lets terms change after listing
The Polymarket US rulebook, in the version dated 30 September 2026, makes three provisions. Rule 10.3 lets the exchange modify contract specifications, including the settlement date and payout condition, with notice. Rule 10.4 places outcome review with named officers, whose determinations are final. Rule 10.5 settles contracts on natural persons at last traded prices when death or incapacity means the qualifying outcome can no longer occur or be determined.
Sources
- Polymarket US Rulebook (version dated 30 September 2026), Chapter 10
- Polymarket documentation: how resolution works
Open on Contract Watch
10 Jun 2026RegulatoryCFTC
CFTC proposal names “settlement integrity deficits” among reasons a contract may be contrary to the public interest
The CFTC proposed amendments to Rule 40.11, which governs event contracts that involve enumerated activities. Among the factors that could make a contract contrary to the public interest, the proposal lists settlement integrity deficits, such as a lack of clear and objective resolution criteria.
Sources
- Congressional Research Service, Legal Sidebar LSB11441
Open on Contract Watch
1 Jun 2026Clarification and disputePolymarket International · Kalshi
Strategy's May bitcoin sale: one sale, NO for May and YES for June
Strategy disclosed on 1 June that it had sold 32 BTC between 26 and 31 May. Polymarket then posted additional context: confirmation that arrived after a market's timeframe did not qualify. Its “by May 31” contract, which traded $376 million, was disputed twice and resolved NO. Its June 30 and December 31 contracts resolved YES.
Sources
Open on Contract Watch
5 Mar 2026Settlement timingPolymarket International · Kalshi
Warsh nomination: both venues paid, about 19 hours apart
Polymarket's “Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?” resolved YES at 19:25 UTC on 4 March, after two disputes. Kalshi's Fed chair nominee contract settled YES at 14:52 UTC on 5 March.
Sources
Open on Contract Watch
2 Mar 2026Rule changeKalshi
Kalshi files a rulebook amendment for contracts whose subject dies
Two days after settling its Khamenei contracts, Kalshi submitted an amendment to Rule 6.3 to the CFTC. When the primary subject of a contract dies before expiration, the amendment authorizes settlement at the last traded price before the death. It also allows trading halts when a death is believed to have occurred or to be imminent, and gives the Outcome Review Committee authority to set a fair settlement value.
Sources
- DeFi Rate, “Kalshi Codifies Death Settlement Rule in CFTC Filing” (March 2026)
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28 Feb 2026Divergent settlementKalshi · Polymarket International · Gemini Predictions · PredictIt
One event, four settlements: Khamenei's death
Polymarket International's “out by February 28” contract paid YES at $1.00 after two disputes. Kalshi applied its death carve-out and settled the YES side of its “before March 1” contract at $0.02, and its later-dated contracts at $0.29, $0.45 and $0.51. Kalshi then reimbursed fees and net losses. Gemini's “remain through” contracts resolved NO, and PredictIt's “vacate” wording covered death.
Sources
Open on Contract Watch
14 Feb 2026Divergent settlementKalshi · Polymarket International
14 February shutdown: YES on Kalshi, NO on Polymarket
Department of Homeland Security funding lapsed, and a partial government shutdown began on Saturday 14 February. Kalshi's contract asked whether the government was at least partially shut down at 10:00 a.m. ET; it settled YES. Polymarket's required the Office of Personnel Management to announce a new shutdown, and excluded any continuation of the shutdown that began on 31 January; it resolved NO.
Sources
Open on Contract Watch

Kalshi weekly natural gas now settles on the Pyth Natural Gas 24/7 index

PJM weekly and monthly hub power prices

Accountability level still $25,000 per strike, per member

Contract Watch, all venues

Kalshi weekly natural gas now settles on the Pyth Natural Gas 24/7 index

PJM weekly and monthly hub power prices

Accountability level still $25,000 per strike, per member

Contract Watch, all venues