Your exposure, matched to the venue contracts. Then the size on screen, the cost, the route above screen size, when each venue pays, and what happened on the last real cases.
Choose a position above to read each venue's book for that outcome.
Link an exposure above to set its reference and payoff against each contract. The venues' own readings of the states a headline does not show:
| State | Kalshi | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|
| Upper bound up 12.5 bp | Larger cut: pays nothingCut 25 bp: pays nothingNo change: not statedHike 25 bp: not statedLarger hike: pays nothingFive outcomes are listed and the rule text states no rounding rule for a move between them.If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. | Larger cut: pays nothingCut 25 bp: pays nothingNo change: pays nothingHike 25 bp: pays $1Larger hike: pays nothingA change smaller than the smallest option in its direction is rounded to that option, so a 12.5 bp increase pays the 25 bps increase outcome.changes smaller than the smallest option of the same direction (increase/decrease) will be rounded to that smallest option |
| Meeting cancelled | Larger cut: pays nothingCut 25 bp: pays nothingNo change: pays $1Hike 25 bp: pays nothingLarger hike: pays nothingFed maintains rate pays 1.00 and every other outcome pays nothing.If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No. | Larger cut: not statedCut 25 bp: not statedNo change: not statedHike 25 bp: not statedLarger hike: not statedThe rule text states nothing about a cancelled meeting. |
| Who decides and when it settles | Expiration is the first 2:05 PM ET after the decision is released. Settlement is due no later than the next day, unless the exchange has the outcome under review.The Settlement Date of the Contract shall be no later than the day after the Expiration Date, unless the Market Outcome is under review pursuant to Rule 7.1. | The description states no settlement time (the venue lists the market's end as 24 Dec 2026). Exchange officers determine outcomes and their determinations are final (Polymarket US Rulebook, Rule 10.4, version dated 30 Sep 2026).Outcome sourced from the Federal Reserve. |
Kalshi paid a median 8.1 minutes after the Fed statement. Polymarket took 2.0 to 3.9 hours by meeting, and up to 33.6 hours at the longest.
The Settlement Date of the Contract shall be no later than the day after the Expiration Date, unless the Market Outcome is under review pursuant to Rule 7.1.
Outcome sourced from the Federal Reserve.
Prices and depth: each venue's public order book as fetched by Predict Here. Your inputs stay in this browser. Past results are a record, not a forecast. Predict Here places no orders.