Same Question, Different Contract
How event contracts actually settle: evidence from matched cases on Kalshi and Polymarket, and from 96,414 resolved Polymarket markets
Read the paperPublished papers on how event contracts settle and what their prices say. Each paper states the date its data runs to. Contract changes and disputes are logged in Contract Watch.
How event contracts actually settle: evidence from matched cases on Kalshi and Polymarket, and from 96,414 resolved Polymarket markets
Read the paperWhat an event-contract quote tells an institution, and the six adjustments it needs before it can be used
Read the paperConditional markets need a shared definition of the event. Today's venues don't have one.
Read the paperCommodity event contracts inherit a benchmark, a clock and a payoff. Each changes the exposure.
Read the paperA cancelled component can become a fractional payout. The combination's own rules decide what happens next.
Read the paperRule changes have their own market data: an author, a scope, an effective date and a history. A text alert captures only part of it.
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