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Glossary

Plain-language meanings for the terms the workspaces use.

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AAA national average: The average price per gallon that AAA publishes each day for US pump gasoline or diesel, on gasprices.aaa.com.
All-hours average: The simple average of every interval in the period, night and day, with no hour excluded. Listed power futures often cover peak hours only, so the two measure different hours.
As-of time: The moment a price or fact was captured. Venues are captured at different times, so check each as-of time before comparing prices.
Basis: The difference between two prices that look alike but measure different things, such as a contract's fixing and the spot price a business actually pays.
Basis point (bp): One hundredth of a percentage point. A 25 bp rate change is a change of 0.25 percentage points.
Bid and ask: The bid is the highest price someone will pay for a contract right now; the ask is the lowest price someone will sell it for. You buy at the ask and sell at the bid.
Binary payoff: Pays a fixed amount, here $1 a contract, if the outcome happens and nothing if it does not. The amount does not grow with how far the price moves.
Boundary state: A case the headline price does not show, such as a cancelled meeting, where the venues' rules pay differently.
Captured source: A copy of a venue page or data feed saved at a specific time, with its address and time, so you can check where a number came from.
Coherence: Whether the prices of outcomes that together cover every possibility add up to about the $1 payout.
Contract: One specific question a venue lets people trade on, such as whether a rate changes at a meeting. Each venue lists its own version, with its own wording and rules.
Correlation: How closely two markets' prices move together. It describes the past and does not promise the future.
Delivery period and roll: The delivery period is the month or flow date an assessment covers. A roll is the point where the assessed period moves on, such as from one delivery month to the next, which can move the value without any market move.
Depth: How much quantity was on offer at each price in an order book.
Derived: A value Predict Here computed from observed values. The inputs and the method are shown with it.
Distribution: How the venues' prices spread the chance across the possible values of a number, such as how many jobs the payrolls report will show.
Event response: How prices moved around a scheduled release or decision, such as an FOMC statement, and how long each venue took to settle.
Expiration value: The single number a venue uses to decide a contract's result, read from its named source at its stated time.
Exposure: A price or result your business is affected by, such as the gas you buy each month or a loan rate that resets after a Fed decision.
Fees: What the venue charges per trade. Kalshi and Polymarket publish their fee formulas; Predict Here adds them to the price at size.
Fixing: The exact time and data source a contract uses to decide its result, such as an asset's closing price at a stated hour. Contracts on the same event can use different fixings.
FOMC: The Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal Reserve body that sets the US policy rate at scheduled meetings.
Front month: The futures contract with the nearest delivery month that is still trading. Which month a price feed follows changes as contracts expire.
Fully funded: The whole possible loss is paid up front, as when buying an event contract: you pay the price and can lose no more than that.
Hedge: A position that gains when your exposure loses, so the two together move less.
Hub: A named trading point on a power grid whose price stands for a wide area; ERCOT publishes prices for its North, Houston and West hubs.
Independence: The case where one outcome tells you nothing about the other.
Interval: One 15-minute slice of the day in ERCOT's real-time market. A normal day has 96; the day the clocks fall back has 100.
Joint bounds: The lowest and highest price that two contracts both paying together can have, given only their two separate prices.
Ladder: A set of contracts on one question at different levels, such as natural gas above $2.80, above $2.90 and above $3.00.
Licence pending: Prices from this source can be shown only under a data licence that is not recorded yet. You can type your own quote instead.
Linear payoff: Gains or loses in step with the price, one for one, in both directions, as a futures contract or a fund share does.
LMP: Locational marginal price: the cost of supplying one more megawatt-hour at a particular point on the grid, as PJM publishes it each hour.
Margin: Collateral an exchange holds while a futures position is open. It moves with the daily settlement price.
Median and quartiles: The median is the level the number is as likely to finish above as below. The quartiles mark the one-quarter and three-quarter points.
Midpoint: The price halfway between the highest bid and the lowest ask. It is shown only when both sides exist and are close together; otherwise the page says there is no firm price.
Negative price: A power price below zero: at that moment generators pay to deliver. Negative prices are averaged in as published.
Notional: The dollar amount an order is for, such as $10,000 of contracts.
Observed: A value a venue or public source showed, with the time Predict Here read it.
Open: The contracts are still trading and have no result yet.
Option: The right, not the obligation, to buy or sell at a set price. The buyer pays a premium up front and gains only beyond that price.
Order book: The buy offers (bids) and sell offers (asks) a venue showed at one moment, each with a price and a quantity.
Outcome: One possible answer to a contract's question, usually Yes or No. Each outcome has its own price.
Payout unit: What one winning contract pays and in which currency or unit, such as 1 US dollar.
Payrolls: The monthly US jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; venues list contracts on the number of jobs added.
Physical (cargo) price: The price for an actual cargo of oil or fuel delivered on a given day, such as EIA's Europe Brent spot, as against a futures price for a later month.
Physical vs futures price: A physical price assesses barrels, cargoes or gas delivered for a stated period. A futures price is for a contract on a future month. They can differ on the same day because they describe different things.
Pooled: Prices that are out of order are averaged together so the curve never falls.
Premium: The price an option buyer pays up front for the option.
Price (share of payout): What an outcome was priced at when it was recorded, shown as a share of what it pays if it comes true. It is a recorded value, not an offer to trade.
Price at size: The average price you would pay (or receive) for a given amount, after walking the book and adding the venue's fees.
Protected preview: A panel whose content is withheld until the data licence for it is recorded.
Public record: A fact from a dated, linked publication.
pUSD: The dollar-denominated token Polymarket uses to settle its contracts. A price quoted in pUSD is shown as recorded, in Polymarket's own unit.
Real-time price: A power price set for the interval just run, as opposed to the day-ahead price agreed the day before.
Record: A case built from dated, published facts rather than from one market's prices, such as when each venue settled past meetings.
Recorded price (archive): A price taken from the saved archive of captured sources. It shows what was recorded, not a price you could trade at.
Reference benchmark: An outside price assessment shown beside a contract for context. It is not the source the contract settles on, so a gap between the two is a difference in what is measured, not a verdict on any price.
Residual: The part of an exposure a hedge does not cover, such as a different reference price, a different date or a size the venue cannot fill.
Retail price: What a customer pays at the pump or meter, taxes and margins included, as against a wholesale or futures price.
Settled: The venue has decided the result and paid winning contracts $1 each.
Settlement benchmark: The named price, index or feed a specific contract uses to decide its result, with the exact measurement, window, rounding and tie rule written in its terms. Two contracts on the same commodity can settle on different benchmarks.
Settlement point price: The price ERCOT publishes for one settlement point, such as a hub, for each 15-minute interval; it is what power at that point is settled at.
Settlement source: The named source a venue relies on to decide how a contract pays out, such as an official statement or a price index.
Settlement time: When each venue paid out after the result was known. Venues settle the same event at different times.
SHA-256: A fingerprint of a saved source file. If the file changes at all, the fingerprint changes, so it shows the copy you see is the one that was captured.
Spot price: The price for delivery now, as published for one day, such as EIA's daily Henry Hub natural gas price.
Spread: The gap between the bid and the ask. A wide spread means trading costs more and the price is less firm.
Taker fee: The fee charged to an order that takes a price already on the book.
Top ask: The lowest price at which someone offers to sell, with the quantity offered at that price.
Top of the book: The highest bid and the lowest ask one venue shows at one moment, with the quantity at each. Larger orders have to go deeper than this.
Touch ladder: Contracts that pay if the price reaches a level at any time in a window, not only at the end.
Touch vs close: A touch contract pays if the price reaches a level at any moment in a window. A close contract looks only at the price at one stated time. The same level can be touched and still be below it at the close.
Walk the book: Fill an order level by level: take everything at the first price, then the next price, and so on. The average of those prices is what a larger order really costs.
Your input: A figure you typed. It stays in your browser and is never presented as a case.