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| Case | Contract | Price recorded | Result | Paid per contract | Per contract after fee | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 Fed decision | Kalshi: Fed maintains rate | 85¢ 16 Oct 2026 Observed | No change at the 28 Oct meeting | $1.00 | +14.1¢ Derived | Paid 6.5 minutes after the 2:00 PM ET statement |
| October 2026 Fed decision | Polymarket International: No change | 86.5¢ 16 Oct 2026 Observed | No change at the 28 Oct meeting | $1.00 | +13.5¢ Derived No fee modelled for this venue | Federal Reserve statement of 28 Oct 2026 |
| Democratic Senate control in 2026 | Kalshi: Democratic Party | 63¢ 16 Oct 2026 Observed | Settled Yes on Kalshi | $1.00 | +35.4¢ Derived | As read from the live view at Mon 9 Nov 2026, 9:33 PM ET |
| Democratic Senate control in 2026 | Polymarket International: Democratic Party | 64.5¢ 16 Oct 2026 Observed | Settled Yes on Polymarket International | $1.00 | +35.5¢ Derived No fee modelled for this venue | As read from the live view at Mon 9 Nov 2026, 9:33 PM ET |
| Natural gas, week to 30 Oct 2026 | Kalshi: Above $2.999 | 2¢ 30 Oct 2026 Observed | Resolved No; the expiration value was $2.883 per MMBtu | $0 | -2.1¢ Derived | Paid Fri 30 Oct 2026, 6:00 PM ET |
Result per contract is what it paid, minus the price recorded, minus the . Kalshi's taker fee is 0.07 × p × (1 − p) per contract, before its per-order rounding: 0.9¢ at 85¢, 1.6¢ at 63¢, 0.1¢ at 2¢.
Not enough settled cases yet. The record holds 5 settled contracts; calibration appears from 30.
Live prices are shown here but left out of the printed and saved copies: Live price withheld from export.
Choose a case and a position on the Size page to build the memo.