Each asks whether gas was above a level. They read different prices, at different times, with different rules.
| Term | KalshiWeekly natural gas priceRules reviewed | CME GroupNat Gas daily eventRules not yet reviewed | KalshiNGAS (EIA spot)Rules reviewed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reference | Pyth Natural Gas 24/7 index (Index.NATGAS/USD), since markets settling 4 Sep 2026 | NYMEX natural gas futures settlement | EIA Henry Hub daily spot price |
| Contract month | None stated; the index is Pyth's own | To confirm from the rulebook | None: a physical spot price |
| Observation | 1-minute close at 5:00 PM ET on the Friday | The day’s settlement price | Every daily price in the week |
| Test | Strictly above the level, once | Above the level; at or below is No | Strictly above (or below) on any day |
| Rounding | 3 decimals; with no value published for that minute, the latest published value | To confirm | As published by EIA |
| Payout and size | $1 a contract; $25,000 per strike accountability level | $1 a contract; through brokers | $1 a contract; $25,000 per member accountability level |
Read 7 Nov 2026 from: Kalshi series metadata: settlement source notice; Kalshi market rules, weekly natural gas price; Kalshi contract terms: commodities; CME Group prediction markets; Kalshi contract terms: NGAS.
An index close at 5:00 PM ET against a physical next-day spot price: different instruments. A difference is not, by itself, a hedge loss.