Open a live case to see each venue's book and rules before settlement. A settled case shows its recorded prices and its result. A record case lists its sources.
15 cases for commercial clients
Natural gas, week to 30 Oct 2026
A close at one minute and a touch at any minute are different tests on two different Pyth feeds, and neither is the cash price.
Settled 30 Oct
Same week, two different contracts, different results: Kalshi “Above $2.999” resolved No; Polymarket International “↓ $2.90” resolved Yes.
Recorded prices and result
A record, not a forecast.
Observed
Recorded prices and results
Case
Contract
Price recorded
Result
Paid per contract
Per contract after fee
Settled
Natural gas, week to 30 Oct 2026
Kalshi: Above $2.999
2¢30 Oct 2026Observed
Resolved No; the expiration value was $2.883 per MMBtu
$0
-2.1¢Derived
Paid Fri 30 Oct 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Result per contract is what it paid, minus the price recorded, minus the . Kalshi's taker fee is 0.07 × p × (1 − p) per contract, before its per-order rounding: 0.1¢ at 2¢.