How assets respond to the Fed, and what ties events together

What this page answers: How the 2-year Treasury yield moved on each Fed decision day, next to what the venues priced beforehand.

This study covers Fed decisions and Treasury yields. It does not use US gasoline, November 2026.

An study uses repeated meetings, measured the same way each time. It separates what the venues expected from what the market did.

Exploratory, not a response model: 1 of 9 meetings have the venue price recorded before the meeting, and each meeting is one observation. Repeated hourly readings of the same meeting are not separate events.

2-year Treasury on FOMC days

Change in the daily par yield, previous close to decision-day close, in . 9 meetings, Oct 25 to Oct 26.

Observed

Change in the 2-year yield on FOMC decision days, in basis points: 29 Oct 2025 +12 (Cut 25); 10 Dec 2025 −7 (Cut 25); 28 Jan 2026 +3 (No change); 18 Mar 2026 +8 (No change); 29 Apr 2026 +8 (No change); 17 Jun 2026 +15 (No change); 29 Jul 2026 −4 (No change); 16 Sept 2026 +7 (Hike 25); 28 Oct 2026 −3 (No change).

No change
Cut 25
Hike 25

On 6 “No change” days the 2-year moved from −4 to +15 bp. The decision alone does not explain the response. A response study adds how expected the decision was (the venue price of the realized outcome before the meeting) and what else the statement moved. Daily closes include other news; intraday windows need a licensed feed. One event never validates a model. Derived

Result	N	Range,	Median, bp
Cut 25	2	−7 to +12	+2.5
No change	6	−4 to +15	+5.5
Hike 25	1	+7 to +7	+7

Inputs per meeting

The venue price, in cents, of the outcome that happened, as recorded before the meeting (with its date); and the yield change at each maturity, in basis points.

Observed

Meeting	Result	Price before	3M	2Y	10Y
29 Oct 2025	Cut 25	Unavailable	+4	+12	+9
10 Dec 2025	Cut 25	Unavailable	−4	−7	−5
28 Jan 2026	No change	Unavailable	+1	+3	+2
18 Mar 2026	No change	Unavailable	+1	+8	+6
29 Apr 2026	No change	Unavailable	0	+8	+6
17 Jun 2026	No change	Unavailable	+4	+15	+6
29 Jul 2026	No change	Unavailable	−7	−4	+6
16 Sept 2026	Hike 25	Unavailable	+3	+7	+1
28 Oct 2026	No change	Kalshi 85¢recorded 16 OctPolymarket Intl 86.5¢recorded 16 Oct	−4	−3	+6

“Unavailable” in “Price before” means no venue price is available in this view for that meeting. No value is estimated or carried forward to fill it. Yields: US Treasury daily par yield curve rates.

Method: daily closes, previous business day to decision day. A daily close includes every other release that day; intraday windows need a licensed feed.

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Trading desks · Event response

How assets respond to the Fed, and what ties events together

What this page answers: How the 2-year Treasury yield moved on each Fed decision day, next to what the venues priced beforehand.

This study covers Fed decisions and Treasury yields. It does not use US gasoline, November 2026.

An study uses repeated meetings, measured the same way each time. It separates what the venues expected from what the market did.

2-year Treasury on FOMC days

Change in the daily par yield, previous close to decision-day close, in . 9 meetings, Oct 25 to Oct 26.

Observed

No change
Cut 25
Hike 25

Result	N	Range,	Median, bp
Cut 25	2	−7 to +12	+2.5
No change	6	−4 to +15	+5.5
Hike 25	1	+7 to +7	+7

Inputs per meeting

The venue price, in cents, of the outcome that happened, as recorded before the meeting (with its date); and the yield change at each maturity, in basis points.

Observed

Meeting	Result	Price before	3M	2Y	10Y
29 Oct 2025	Cut 25	Unavailable	+4	+12	+9
10 Dec 2025	Cut 25	Unavailable	−4	−7	−5
28 Jan 2026	No change	Unavailable	+1	+3	+2
18 Mar 2026	No change	Unavailable	+1	+8	+6
29 Apr 2026	No change	Unavailable	0	+8	+6
17 Jun 2026	No change	Unavailable	+4	+15	+6
29 Jul 2026	No change	Unavailable	−7	−4	+6
16 Sept 2026	Hike 25	Unavailable	+3	+7	+1
28 Oct 2026	No change	Kalshi 85¢recorded 16 OctPolymarket Intl 86.5¢recorded 16 Oct	−4	−3	+6

Method: daily closes, previous business day to decision day. A daily close includes every other release that day; intraday windows need a licensed feed.