Commercial clients · Settlement risk

What could stop a contract paying

Two venues can list the same question and still pay differently. Below: what each venue's own rules say for the cases a headline price does not show, the (how long each venue took to pay), and the cases where venues settled the same question differently. Each contract pays on its , so a business whose price differs from it carries .

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No priced contract is on the book to choose from yet.

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December 2026 FOMC: boundary states

Rule texts read on 5 Nov 2026. Each venue's own words are quoted.

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The venues' rules differ, or one venue is silent, on 3 of 3 states: Upper bound up 12.5 bp, Meeting cancelled, Who decides and when it settles.

Boundary states by venue
State	Kalshi	Polymarket International	Polymarket US
Upper bound up 12.5 bp	Larger cut: pays nothingCut 25 bp: pays nothingNo change: not statedHike 25 bp: not statedLarger hike: pays nothingFive outcomes are listed and the rule text states no rounding rule for a move between them.If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Larger cut: pays nothingCut 25 bp: pays nothingNo change: pays nothingHike 25 bp: pays $1Larger hike: pays nothingA change to a level not among the options is rounded up to the nearest 25 bp, so a 12.5 bp increase pays the 25 bps increase outcome.If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)	Larger cut: pays nothingCut 25 bp: pays nothingNo change: pays nothingHike 25 bp: pays $1Larger hike: pays nothingA change smaller than the smallest option in its direction is rounded to that option, so a 12.5 bp increase pays the 25 bps increase outcome.changes smaller than the smallest option of the same direction (increase/decrease) will be rounded to that smallest option
Meeting cancelled	Larger cut: pays nothingCut 25 bp: pays nothingNo change: pays $1Hike 25 bp: pays nothingLarger hike: pays nothingFed maintains rate pays 1.00 and every other outcome pays nothing.If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.	Larger cut: depends on the ruleCut 25 bp: depends on the ruleNo change: depends on the ruleHike 25 bp: depends on the ruleLarger hike: depends on the ruleThe No change outcome pays if no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting.If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.	Larger cut: not statedCut 25 bp: not statedNo change: not statedHike 25 bp: not statedLarger hike: not statedThe rule text states nothing about a cancelled meeting.
Who decides and when it settles	Expiration is the first 2:05 PM ET after the decision is released. Settlement is due no later than the next day, unless the exchange has the outcome under review.The Settlement Date of the Contract shall be no later than the day after the Expiration Date, unless the Market Outcome is under review pursuant to Rule 7.1.	The market may resolve as soon as the FOMC statement is issued; its own rules name no time limit, and the oracle decides the result.This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued.	The description states no settlement time (the venue lists the market's end as 24 Dec 2026). Exchange officers determine outcomes and their determinations are final (Polymarket US Rulebook, Rule 10.4, version dated 30 Sep 2026).Outcome sourced from the Federal Reserve.

This is our plain-English reading of what each venue's rules say. A venue that says nothing about a state is shown as not stated; we do not say what it should pay.

WTI crude oil, November 2026: what each event settles on

Each event of the case side by side: the source it reads, its window, its rounding and what happens when the value equals the level.

OpenPublic record

Term	Polymarket International · WTI touch in November	Kalshi · WTI highest settlement in November	Kalshi · WTI lowest settlement in November	Kalshi · WTI daily settlement on 13 Nov (context)context
Result is set	Polymarket International: window ends Mon 30 Nov 2026, 11:59 PM ET	Kalshi: watches each day's settlement price until 30 Nov 2026	Kalshi: watches each day's settlement price until 30 Nov 2026	Kalshi: result set 13 Nov 2026, by that day's daily settlement
Source	Not read yet	Not read yet	Not read yet	Not read yet
Instrument	Not read yet	Not read yet	Not read yet	Not read yet
Measures	Not read yet	Not read yet	Not read yet	Not read yet
Window	Not read yet	Not read yet	Not read yet	Not read yet
Rounding	Not read yet	Not read yet	Not read yet	Not read yet
Equal to the level	Not read yet	Not read yet	Not read yet	Not read yet
If no data is published	Not read yet	Not read yet	Not read yet	Not read yet