# Prediction-market contract comparison checklist

Educational worksheet. This is not a venue contract, legal opinion, investment recommendation, Predict Here export, source license, or proof that a price difference is arbitrage. The template is blank; examples must be labeled synthetic unless they are supported by source material the user is authorized to use.

## Compare the proposition

- [ ] State the real-world event or condition each contract addresses.
- [ ] Copy the exact affirmative outcome and negative outcome definitions.
- [ ] Record thresholds, units, comparison operators, and observation periods.
- [ ] Record the deadline, cutoff, and named time zone; compare the exact instants.
- [ ] Identify the resolution source and any source hierarchy or fallback.
- [ ] Check cancellation, delay, correction, dispute, and missing-data treatment.
- [ ] Record lifecycle state and the contract-rules version reviewed.
- [ ] Distinguish equivalent, exact complement, mutually exclusive, exhaustive, nested, correlated, not equivalent, and unresolved relationships.
- [ ] Preserve unknown terms and review state; do not infer them from price movement.

## Preserve the evidence

- [ ] Research question and intended decision
- [ ] Canonical proposition or event reference, if one is used
- [ ] Contract references and source identifiers
- [ ] Source observation time and capture time, if available
- [ ] Exact rules text or permitted source reference and version
- [ ] Relationship type, review state, rationale, reviewer identity, and review time
- [ ] Input values, methodology identifier, and relevant software/version information
- [ ] Assumptions, missing terms, source-quality limits, and follow-up triggers
- [ ] Source-rights/redistribution check before retaining or sharing source text

## Keep price analysis separate

For any price or visible-depth calculation, state the contract unit, trade direction, side of book, observation time, requested size, visible fill, unfilled amount, fees included or excluded, and whether the value is a weighted average on a partial fill. A timestamped book can change before an order arrives. A sampled price is not a firm executable quote or a guaranteed fill.

## Blank comparison worksheet

| Review question | Contract A | Contract B | Difference, evidence, or unknown |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Proposition |  |  |  |
| YES and NO definitions |  |  |  |
| Threshold, unit, operator, period |  |  |  |
| Deadline and time zone |  |  |  |
| Resolution source and fallback |  |  |  |
| Exceptions, corrections, cancellation |  |  |  |
| Rules version and source time |  |  |  |
| Lifecycle state |  |  |  |
| Relationship and review status |  |  |  |
| Reviewer rationale and follow-up |  |  |  |

## Example conclusion format

> Relationship: [type or unresolved]. Evidence reviewed: [permitted source references, versions, and timestamps]. Material differences: [list]. Assumptions: [list]. This review does not establish: [limits]. Recheck when: [change trigger].

This worksheet is a standalone educational resource. It does not imply that Predict Here exports this format or that a user is entitled to any source data.